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This is the title of the Mearns2 forecast given at the web site "the oil drum". In all, twelve points are listed and they can be consulted at the web address.
Could we suggest that everyone has to adopt a life style as described on page 2 ? Impossible, though a few people do head to the countryside and try to work out a sustainable existance. A religious group in Canada, Madonna House, do come close to sustainability but the members are called to a very spiritual and hardworking life.
If we could look at the four main areas of energy use as given below:
we see that transport is increasing the most rapidly and therefore this is the one to tackle first.
There will have to be a concerted effort to get people out of cars and onto public transport - if it requires excessive congestion charges in cities and subsidised ticketing for trains, trams and buses then this is the price which must be paid. In addition, a realistic taxation on aviation fuel must be introduced as air travel is rising at an alarming rate.
The glory days for the railway network were in the 1920's 1930's period and then competition grew, firstly, from road transport and, secondly, from air transport. Dr Beeching severely pruned the network in the 1950's 1960's period and privatisation has radically altered the way in which railways are run. The Wikipedia web site gives a good account these changes http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beeching_Axe and a future vision of transport must involve the expansion of the rail network. One would hope, however, that the fiasco of New Year 2008 would never be repeated:
Reproduced by kind permission of PRIVATE EYE www.private-eye.co.uk ..
Another interesting site is http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Woodhead_Tunnel which describes a cross-country electrified line wich was closed only moments after it had been opened. Such colossal wastages must not be allowed to happen and your support can be given through http://savethewoodheadtunnel.blogspot.com .
Every country is struggling with road transportation and huge motorway networks rarely seem to eleviate congestion. A tolling system would be helpful in many cases and rising cost of fuels may further reduce the inexorable rise of the number of vehicles on our roads.
A high-tech fix for road transportation in the longer term may involve Hydrogen fuel which would be produced by photovoltaic electricity. A fuel cell , driven by Hydrogen, would then be used to power an electric vehicle.
A lower-tech solution should involve the use of cycles. Cycling is the most energy efficient form of transport and a "score card" shows a good rating with respect to other forms of city transport.
Out of 144 the cycle scores 94 and is shortly behind the Chauffeur-driven car at 98.
Experiments with a cycle with an electric motor fitted were conducted by the author several decades ago. Whilst this offered great promise as a means of transport it was considered too dangerous to use with the amount of traffic of the roads. Should there be a time in the future when the clutter of cars is removed from our roads then this will be an excellent form of transport.
What a difference a few years makes? Out now (August 2010) is a rear wheel that takes all the sweat out of cycling.
The "green" or Copenhagen wheel gives power out when travelling up hills and regenerates its batteries when going down hill. It is controlled by a smart phone that can be fitted to the handlebars.
Of course, road traffic is still a problem and, in UK, the weather.
DOMESTIC ENERGY USE
The other main culprit for increased energy use is in the domestic sector. To help us reduce energy consumption, here, the Energy Saving Trust has given us 10 Top Tips.
1 Eliminate draughts in doors and windows
2 Eliminate drought in room through floors and cealings
3 Use energy saving lighting
The saving of at least a factor of 7 in using compact fluorescant ( CF ) bulbs is remarkable as the following graph shows:
For the same light level of, say, 2000 lumens, an incandescent bulb needs 140 watts of electrical power whereas the CF light consumes only 20 watts. ( Note - consult local environmental agencies for CF bulbs disposal as they contain mercury a toxic substance. )
4 Insulate hot water tank
5 Insulate the loft
6 Use cavity wall insulation
7 Check that you are using an efficient boiler
8 Use other energy efficient appliances in the home
9 Do a double-glaze
10 Do an on-line home energy check
If you check out the B&Q web site you will find most of these points covered and, naturally, B&Q would like to sell you all these energy saving items.
Other addition points - if you exercise by walking or cycling you may be able to turn down the thermostat a few degrees; showers rather than baths saves both water and energy; extra sweaters will keep you warm indoors or outdoors; taking meter readings ( both electricity and gas meters ) can make one a little more attentive to energy use.
Suburbia is not a good place to make dramatic energy savings but, remember, a little saving from each person will amount to a hugh total saving for the country.
Have a look at the Mearns2 document - it will give you many more ideas. The web address is as follows: www.theoildrum.com
The fact that we are using a decreasing amount of energy for industry may appear to be a welcome sign. However, it really shows that industry is working at a very reduced level and it is no longer contributing effectively to our balance of payment. Mearns2 give a detailed account of this on his web site and shows that we are set for a severe deficit as the gains of the service sector do not match the deficits caused by importing goods.
Energy use by our "services" has remained fairly constant over a number of years so there is probably little to be done here.
Reference must now be made to SE-HA. The relevant chapters come at the end of the text :-
27 Five Energy plans for Britain
28 Putting cost into perspective
29 What to do now?
30 Energy plans for Europe, America and the World
31 The last thing we should talk about
32 Saying yes
All the chapters 27- 31 give hope for the future but they rather depend on the last chapter where one needs to say "yes" to all the ideas that are put forward. This is the sting in the tale as the following extract shows : -
To be fair to Tony Blair it was the royal "we" that was being used so he was being consistent when he wished to continue jetting around the world. But, if we all use the royal "we" then be assured that non of us are saying "yes" to any change and, sooner rather than later, our planet will be driven into irreversible disaster.
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