Page 5

      Site Navigation Links : Please click on SITE MAP:                                                                                      Next page

The Energy scenario for the UK

  In the last section, page 4, we have seen how Denmark is proposing a mix of energy sources so that it will not be dependent on any single source. Roughly, there will be one third oil, one third gas and one third renewables.

In the UK we have been very fortunate to have indigenous supplies of fuel, firstly coal and then our bonanza from the North Sea - oil and, almost as a biproduct  from the oil wells, natural gas.

Over the last few decades our use of energy (by source) is given in the following diagram:

Coal, which was our main source of energy before 1960, has given way to oil and gas from the North Sea. Nuclear and Hydro energy sources share a much smaller part of the energy mix and Renewables are not quite measurable on this energy scale.

If we look at the energy for 2005 the following illustration gives another view on our energy mix.

The Energy units are now given in Joules, about 9.5 EJ. ( 225 (Mtoe) x 42 (conversion factor) = 9450  PJ  = 9.45 EJ)

Biomass has been linked to Hydro but, as one can see, the contribution to our primary energy account is small. The delivered energy shows that we can only achieve about 6.5 EJ as useable energy and that 3 EJ are lost by conversion and delivery. Unfortunately this is one of the hard facts of science. Thermodynamics predicts that in converting heat to mechanical power only about one third conversion efficiencies are  possible. To get some idea what 3 EJ looks like we can convert energy to power with a consumption of 90 GW. Say now we look at the UK population which is close to 70 million people. If each person (children and adults - not households) leaves on a one bar electric fire, 1.3 kW, then the electricity wasteage would add up to 90 GW.

So electrical power stations are very wasteful in that two thirds of the energy consumed  is used to heat up the atmosphere and only one third gives electrical energy for our needs.

Denmark has gone some way to redress the hugh loss by directing the waste heat to homes and therefore re-gaining some of the heat. UK, on the other hand, has very few examples of district heating.

A much more elaborate method of showing the annual energy flow in UK is given in the Digest of UK Energy Statistics. These are somewhat retrospective in that the 2006 Statistics give a flow chart for 2004.

The following illustration give only a small section of the diagram but the full diagram can be downloaded if a google search is made for "Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2006".

The units in the diagram are million tonnes of oil equivalent  ( Mtoe) so, for instance, natural gas has a value 107.4 Mtoe which converts to 4.5 ExoJoules  ( EJ ) which is rather higher than that used in 2005, namely about 4.0 EJ.

Updated information obtained from Google search "Digest of UK energy statistics". The site National Statistics DECC Energy Production and Consumption 2009 can be opened ...then scroll down to find "Energy Flow Chart".

********************************************************************************

After this brief resume about our energy use over the past few decades it is now essential to present some truths about our current situation;

WE  ARE EXPERIENCING  A DOWN TURN IN THE SUPPLY OF OIL AND GAS FROM THE NORTH SEA. ALTHOUGH WE STILL HAVE COAL STOCKS THERE IS A DECIMATED COAL INDUSTRY IN THE UK. ONE WONDERS , THEREFORE, WHAT ENERGY SCENARIO AWAITS US .

Clearly, the government must have been thinking along these line as it issued an Energy White paper in 2003. The basic assertion in this document was that we were all to use much less energy and that Renewables would solve any shortcommings that may arise. Most people were not impressed with the ideas put forward in the 2003 document and therefore another Energy White paper was published on the 23 May 07 and this was entitled "Meeting the Challenge". What is alarming is that on page 106 of the document there is a pie chart giving the predicted mix  in 2020 of primary energy sources

----   14 % coal, 39% oil, 40 % gas , 3 % nuclear and 4 % renewable 

It can only be concluded that we will be about 80% reliant on fuels that will have to be imported and whose security of supply is very questionable. Section 4.04 (page 106) states "we therefore need to be confident that the market continues to ensure reliable supplies" - add one's own expletive here or write to the press.

Richard Girling, in his Sunday Times article  "Black to the Future" (14 October, 2007) has some thoughts on energy and it is recommended as a good read. You may also plough through the 342 pages of the White paper and see if any recommendations have been made to give the country a secure energy supply in the future.

In truth, the government has absolved itself from giving us energy security --- ALL ENERGY PROVIDERS ARE NOW IN PRIVATE HANDS and these energy companies are in business to make a profit. One has severe doubts that any company would be able to attract capital funds to, say, finance the building of a barrage across the Severn Estuary.  Do oil companies bear the full costs of spillage of oil on our beaches? Do they make recompense for severe climate changes in Africa? Or do British Energy, the privatised nuclear industry, have to deal with decommissioning reduntant power stations and provide secure storage for the radioactive waste for centuries to come? Oh no, the government (ie tax payers) has full liabilities for this. In fact it is very evident that the privatised energy companies have "cherry picked" all the easy parts of energy to give a good return to share holders and left the rest of the country to shoulder the true energy costs. Several of the Utilities are owned by European Companies - EDF (Energie de France) REW (Rheinisch-Westfalische Elektrizitatswerke) and E-on (Energy on) and it could well be that their loyalties lie more with European interests rather than the population of the UK. Recently, however, RWE has revealed plans to build a gas fired power plant at Staythorpe, Swindon and a carbon capture plant at Aberthaw, South Wales. E-on has abandoned plans for a coal-fired plant at Kingsnorth.

At this stage it may be instructive to look at numerical data  - already mentioned are the hugh power station losses, 90 GW, which we release into the atmosphere. Denmark attempts to reduce these losses by district heating. In the bar chart above we see that in 2005 we have an annual comsumption of electricity of 1.2 EJ which amounts to an average power consumption of 40 GW. Estimates suggest that by 2010 we will need 60 GW and an even greater amount , perhaps 80 GW, to service peak demands. The Department for Business, Enterprise and Regulatory Reform, in their Energy market outlook, conclude that " in the near term, the security of supply in the electricity sector looks robust". Yet, in the same document they admit that several generating plants (12 GW total capacity) will not meet stringent air quality standards set by the Large Combustion Plants Directive and will be forced to close in 2015. In addition, the Health and Safety Executive's Nuclear Installation Inspectorate  may close several (5 to 8 GW) of Nuclear power plant capacity on or before this date. Thus, a shortfall of 20 GW could occur within 5 to 6 years. Renewable sources, wind, solar, tidal, geothermal, hydro, wave, biomass... would give, at best, 4 - 5 GW and will not ever approach a delivered power of 20 GW by the year 2015.  

Today, nuclear power is being hailed as an energy source to save our planet. An article by John Busby, 15 Nov 09, casts doubt over this suggestion  www.after-oil.co.uk  . Table 1 on page 4 show clearly that the UK has to import all the Uranium ore which gives a feed of 2,059 tonnes to our reactors. If the whole world requires Uranium the price will increase at an alarming rate and one has to question whether nuclear power will be affordable.

So, we come back to the fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas.

COAL  From the first graph we find that the annual consumption of coal is approximately 40 Mtoe. We convert to Mtco (million tonnes coal equivalent by a factor 1.66. This gives approx.65Mtce and imports are 47 million tonnes, Mt, and UK production is 18 Mt. More coal could be produced at home but, presently, imported coal is cheaper.

GAS  Again, from the first graph, gas consumption is 90 Mtoe. In a parliamentary report Malcolm Wicks reported (House of Commons, Hansard written answers) that 285 TWh was imported in 2007 so we need to compare 90 Mtoe with his figure. A factor of 42 converts Mtoe to PJ  - so, gas consumption is 3780 PJ.   Now there are 3600 J in  1 Wh  so  the UK gas usage amounts to approximately 1000 TWh. We see therefore that approximately 1/3 of out gas supply has to be imported. By 2015 the UK will have to import 50% to 60% of its gas.

OIL With an oil consumption 80 Mt and imports of 46 Mt. we see that there is almost a 50:50 split between North sea oil and imported oil. By  2015 the import of oil may well have risen from this approximate value of 50% to 75%. (Useful reading matter at www.berr.gov.uk )

Well, that is our numerical data. In very broad terms - all nuclear fuel has to be imported and we are soon to be importing all fossil fuels, coal, oil and gas at a rate of about 75% when the country is in a very poor economic state and can ill afford to spend abroad. The security of supply can never be guaranteed so one must be prepared for the consequences. The year 2015 would appear to be a watershed as electrical generation capacity could fall by 20 GW, almost a third of total capacity, and interruptions of supply are more than likely.

External observers voice their opinion "How has Britain ended up in this terrible mess?" I quote from Roger Pielke  "In terms of energy policy this situation is almost criminal - a hugh planning failure in New Labour's 12 year reign"   - perhaps I could add    ----    a legacy for Tony Blaire   

But, in the end, energy must be a national issue and good governance must offer the whole nation a secure energy supply.

I look to the Danish model with envy.